Nassim Taleb and the key to success
The key to a good system is to either 1) minimize C, 2) increase the chance of X, or 3) increase the payoff from S.
3) is one of the things I use most frequently. The idea is that by maximizing the payoff from S, sooner or later, when S occurs, you get a huge payoff in the millions of dollars.
Now, in order to increase 2), is very simple. Each time you engage in A, you gain experience, and skills. This will increase 2). In addition, every time S occurs, you increase your audience, and thus 2) is also increased.
Read the full article here: https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility
Therefore, YouTube is great for completeness of any article. Any article you write, including a YouTube video will immediately increase the value of your article. By the way, if you didn’t know what YouTube is, you can find out by watching this video:
See? So I didn’t have to write a long winded explanation of YouTube, and I didn’t waste your time by making you read that explanation. I gave you the choice of watching a YouTube video. Great for writers, and great for audiences.
The real reason for zoning laws
Lets start with the agricultural land reserve. The government tells you that it was started to “protect farmland”. Because the Fraser Valley is home to the most fertile land in BC, theory is that protecting farmland is good for BC’s economy. That’s total BS. Today, 45% of the ALR is sitting empty. If farmland was actually so important, farmers would be farming on these lands. If it was so important, they would put this land to use even without an ALR regulation. But with farming technology so advanced, we can farm almost anywhere, and if the government tells you we’re going to run out of food, it’s a fear tactic.
The government tells you that zoning laws are meant to keep unsuitable practices away from each other, such as factories and houses. More BS. Now they’ve changed their story and say that zoning is needed to keep the character of the neighborhoods. That’s closer to the truth.
There are two things that governments like: they like money, and they like to stay in power. The ALR, and zoning laws help them achieve both. Zoning laws are nothing but supply side restrictions. Their purpose is to restrict the uses for land, and they restrict the land available for possible use. The lack of supply drives up property prices, and as you know, property taxes are calculated using property prices. The lower the supply, the higher the value of properties, and the more revenue is generated.
But even more importantly, the government earns money by giving exemptions to their laws. This is known as crony capitalism, and it makes the government a lot of money. Have you wondered why developers are the biggest donors to any municipal political party? Crony capitalism at work. When developers want to take a piece of land zoned for single family housing, and build something bigger, they have to pay up. These fees account for a significant part of a city’s revenue. In some cities, developer fees account to almost 50% of their revenue. These zoning laws now act as a tax, and the tax revenue is so ginormous that it is impossible for cities to give it up.
Second, governments want to stay in power. They want to protect the interests of the people who elected them. These people are wealthy homeowners, who want to keep their housing prices high. They don’t want a huge supply side injection, because this would drive down the prices of their homes. Towers in residential areas is a big no-no.
Update: January 6-
I just read this article regarding zoning laws from 1922. I was right. Note #2 and #6: http://discoveringurbanism.blogspot.ca/2012/05/edward-murray-bassett-and-origins-of.html
The great Peter Thiel
Note: January 5, 2017:
Listen to how Peter Thiel answers this question about recreating the next Silicon Valley. He really gets it, and it is amazing.
Are we really seeing global cooling?
The majority of science is trapped in a bubble. They have relied on their models-models that take hundreds of parameters. Just figuring out the weather tomorrow there is only a 60% certainty (ask your local meteorologist). Figuring out the average temperature of planet earth right now there is a 1% certainty. Figuring out the effects of CO2 on the average temperature on the weather in 5 years. . . there is a 0% certainty.
Predictions only work when the parameters that are used are unambiguous, measurable, and clearly observable. Sun spots are one of these parameters. The number of sun spots, their intensity—these are things that are directly observable. Not only that, there is a clear relationship between the sun spots, and global temperature.
The idea that humans increased the global temperatures over the last 50 years is probably right. Because the global temperature is observable, and it is clear that the increase was not caused by nature. By elimination, humans caused the temperature increase. But to figure out what exactly caused the increase—was it CO2, was it something else—is based entirely on speculation. And add to that, global warming might be good for the world! And add to that, scientists have already developed ways of temporarily cooling the world down, by emitting sulphur into the atmosphere. So, not only isn’t there a problem, if there was a problem humans would figure out a way to solve it.
Now sun spots are an entirely different animal. We might now be in a period of global cooling. And science points to it. So science is in trouble. Because as they will find all of their predictions fail, and they will blame the inaccuracy of their models. But then their core beliefs and core values will fall, and they will find that in their last 20 years they fell into a mass delusion greater than the world has ever seen. And then that will open a glimpse in to the world, that your IQ doesn’t mean you understand more. In fact, people with higher IQ’s are more susceptible to mass delusions. It’s about your awareness, about your control of your emotions.
It will be amazing to see this transformation, and it is an amazing time to be alive, because we are about to realize that planet earth is not the centre of the universe, and global warming was a mass delusion.
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The problem with most business advice
Business is all about taking risksor this:
To succeed in business, you must first failThese sayings are probably true. Almost every successful entrepreneur has gone through many More