If you want to better understand success, you must read Nassim Taleb. It’s something that I have been doing for years without realizing it. Nassim describes a system that is anti-fragile. It is a system that thrives on uncertainty. Let’s say the chance of a success S is 1% if you randomly engage in any one action A. This S is a positive event such as say you get 10,000 dollars. Now the key to a good system is to maximize the quantity of A, so that you maximize the probability of S occuring. But for each action A, there is a cost C. As long as C < 100 dollars, then chance is on your side.

The key to a good system is to either 1) minimize C, 2) increase the chance of X, or 3) increase the payoff from S.

3) is one of the things I use most frequently. The idea is that by maximizing the payoff from S, sooner or later, when S occurs, you get a huge payoff in the millions of dollars.

Now, in order to increase 2), is very simple. Each time you engage in A, you gain experience, and skills. This will increase 2). In addition, every time S occurs, you increase your audience, and thus 2) is also increased.

Read the full article here: https://www.edge.org/conversation/nassim_nicholas_taleb-understanding-is-a-poor-substitute-for-convexity-antifragility